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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."